A Day of Reckoning – A Follow Up
I forecast that the U.S. National Debt would be reported by the U.S. Treasury to rise $100+ billion in just one day… 9/30/2011:
“A Day of Reckoning” – Inform The Pundits, Azleader, 10/3/2011
That forecast was based on the fact that the end of September is the end of the federal government’s fiscal year when it balances its books and that in the previous 10 years there had been huge jumps.
The amount of the jump was a guesstimate based on the performance of the economy over the last year.
I also forecast that the huge jump in the ND would be totally unreported by the national press.
So what Actually Happened?
As forecast, nothing was reported in the national media. No surprise there.
The actual increase in the National Debt(ND) for September 30th, 2011 was $95 billion; a little less than I predicted. That is still approximately 25 times higher than the average daily growth rate of the ND… $3.8 billion/day.
It supports the premise that the federal government continues to underestimate its expenses year after year after year and must adjust for that at milestone times like the end of the fiscal year.
As you can see in the above graphic, from September 29th to October 5th the ND grew by $163 billion!
That compares to $158 billion for the same period last year.
2011’s jump in the ND is the 2nd highest dollar jump in U.S. history over the same period.
For all the talk of budget cuts and debt reduction this country’s ginormous debt level continues to grow faster than the “Occupy Wall Street” movement!
Anyone out there remember that we recently passed $900+ billion in “spending cuts”? More “spending cuts” are promised.
Those of you who naively think that those $900+ billion in “spending cuts” haven’t had time to take effect yet are partially right. They haven’t.
The naive part of that notion is that most folks believe some day they will and it will actually result in true reductions in the dollar amount of the National Debt. That part won’t happen.
The inconvenient truth is that the way DC math works is that “spending cuts” NEVER take effect.
That is because the vast majority of “spending cuts” politicians claim are actually reductions in the rise of spending spread over long periods of time, not real dollar cuts. That means the ND will continue to rise indefinitely despite claims to the contrary.
That means the much ballyhooed round of spending cuts and the “super committee” that will take up so much ink in the national press in the coming months will also be just another round of political smoke and mirrors like it always is.
The last question asked in the article “A Day of Reckoning” remains as relevant now as it will be in the future…
Will we get serious about reducing our massive debt before its to late?