Have Democrats Regained Their Mojo?
Energized by the Tea Party Movement, 2010 was the year of the Republican.
Has the pendulum swung back the other way?
Will 2012 be the year of the Democrat?
It is still to early to tell but it could be.
There is a newspaper story this week that subconsciously emits vibrations that just might happen:
“California Set to Send Many New Faces to Washington“
– Adam Nagourney, New York Times, 2/13/2012
Yes, the story is in the liberal, Democrat-leaning New York Times which makes Republicans scoff. However, the article itself doesn’t make any predictions whatsoever about which party might win. That is why it has reasonable authenticity.
2010: The Year of the Republican!
No matter how you cut the mustard, Democrats were demolished in the 2010 mid-term elections. If Democrats were a military unit they’d still be mourning their lost comrades.
For you non-believers here is the body count:
- The Rs gained +63 seats in the 435-seat U.S. House of Representatives
- The Rs gained +5 seats in the 50-seat U.S. Senate… Democrats lost 6 seats
- The Rs gained +9 total Governorships
- The Rs gained +625 seats in State Houses
Its the worst shellacking either party has suffered in recent modern history.
Republicans ousted Democrats from power in the U.S. House and now have a strong +24 seat majority.
Republicans reduced a filibuster proof super-majority in the U.S. Senate from just two years earlier to a narrow Democratic majority. What was a 30-20 Democratic advantage in Governorships just two years previous was reversed to a 29-20 Republican advantage.
Of the 435 U.S. House seats ups for grabs in 2010, just two – Delaware and New Orleans – changed from Republican control to Democratic control.
But the biggest shellacking of all came in State Legislatures. There was a +625 seat gain made by Republicans.
Tea Party activist were organized and very politically active. They were successful in the 2010 mid-terms at literally every level of government.
Has the Tide Changed?
2010 seems long ago now. A lot has happened.
President Obama is re-energized now that he is back into full campaign mode again. Single-handed Obama is dragging Democrats up by their collars out of the depths.
The economy is showing positive signs of life and that bodes well for Democrats in 2012. Voters are mad as hornets at the bickering Congress and just might vote out the whole bunch of ’em.
In a prelude of things to come, the New York Times(NYT) said that California’s congressional delegation will undergo a major upheaval in 2012, biggest in the Congress. With reapportionment and retirements it is expected a quarter of it’s 53-member delegation will be newcomers after the 2012 elections.
It’s expected that many of those seats will change parties. That compares with only a single seat in the last decade changing hands from one party to another in California.
Because Republicans took control of so many State Houses, it is thought they should have the advantage this year by gerrymandering district boundaries to maximize Republican chances.
The X-factor in 2012 is general voter anger with Congress. They are disgusted with the bickering in Washington and are gunning to make someone pay. Freshman Republicans are particularly vulnerable to that anger.
Voters are already hornet mad at Congress for continuing ideological deadlocks and 11th hour agreements that leave a bad taste in everybody’s mouth.
Negative super-PAC attack adds from both sides are only going to make things worse. 2012 could be the bitterest campaign ever.
In all the electoral turmoil it would be easy to absolve Democrats and blame the new Republicans for everything. The liberal mainstream media will definitely paint Republican obstructionism with broad brush strokes again this year and drumbeat voters into turning on the new Republicans that they so willingly elected in 2010.
It just might stick this time.
If its true, as suggested in the NYT headline, that there will be a lot of new faces coming to Washington in 2013, then more often than not they will be Democrats.