NK Nuke Test Set for May 28th?
A prediction… North Korea’s 3rd nuclear test will be on or around May 28, 2012.
Its clear from the latest commercial satellite imagery from GeoEye that North Korea is continuing preparations for its 3rd nuclear bomb test right next to previously tested nukes.
It’s not a question if North Korea will conduct a 3rd nuclear detonation, but rather when. The where is already known.
When that happens it will repeat a pattern established in 2006 and 2009 where North Korea conducted both underground nuclear detonation tests and missile tests in close succession.
It was 3 years between the first two such dual tests in 2006 and in 2009. Its been 3 years since it’s last dual tests in 2009.
With much fanfare and with invited international press present, the latest failed missile test has already been conducted. That only leaves the nuclear test to go.
Why May 28th for a Nuclear Test?
May 28th is Memorial Day in the United States!!
That sounds totally crazy and the evidence is thin, but here it is…
Like all hard-core communist countries, North Korea (DPRK) makes a show of military power around politically important dates.
For example, DPRK’s failed missile launch in April occurred during the centennial celebration of the birth of Kim Il-sung, DPRK’s founder who is thought of as a deity in North Korea.
In 2006 and 2009 North Korea conducted both missile and nuclear bomb tests.
In 2006 on October 9th, DPRK conducted its first nuke bomb test. October 9th was the 62nd anniversary of the founding of DPRK’s ruling Korean Worker’s Party. That was preceded in July by its first barrage of missile test firings that culminated in seven missiles fired on July 5th.
In 2009, DPRK tested its 2nd nuclear bomb on May 25th. That was culminated 9 days later by launching a long range missile over U.S. protectorate Japan on July 4th.
The July and May dates do not correspond to any special North Korean political events. However, they do correspond to dates important to Americans.
Both July tests are suspiciously close to the Fourth of July. That is U.S. Independence Day, perceived by North Korea as very important to Americans. May 25th was Memorial Day in the United States in 2006. That, too, would be perceived as important to Americans by North Koreans.
North Korea appears to be going out of its way to demonstrate its power and to try to strike fear into the hearts of Americans by conducting important military tests on or near U.S. holidays.
Why pick a U.S. holiday?
The U.S. and North Korea have a long history of broken agreements. It may be payback for the United States reneging on a promise to build two light water nuclear reactors that NK desperately needed for electricity generation in support of North Korean industrial development.
The U.S. had made a deal with North Korea to build the reactors for North Korea in exchange for them stopping development on two graphite reactors it had put significant work into and to shut down its only working graphite nuclear reactor.
The U.S. feared NK was using the working reactor to build crude plutonium bombs. The U.S. was right. That is where they got the plutonium for the bombs they are testing now. The U.S., however, did not follow through on its promise.
On its own, North Korea right now is rapidly building its own light water reactor and has already built reprocessing capability that it can use to build uranium-based nuclear WMDs.
The last politically significant internal North Korean date for conducting a nuclear test was April 25th. That was the 80th anniversary of the formation of the “Korean People’s Army”. That day came and went without a nuke test.
Therefore, given the 2006 nuclear detonation was on Memorial Day, it’s a logical guess that the upcoming test will be near Memorial Day again this year.
Its reasonably certain that North Korea plays a prominent role in President Obama’s daily national security briefings. He probably sees military satellite images every day.
May 28th may not prove to be the date of the test. It could come sooner. It could come later.
All that is known for sure is that a nuclear detonation test is coming… and coming soon!