The Real July Jobs Report
Friday’s monthly jobs report for July from the BLS celebrated a better than expected creation of +163,000 new jobs. The DOW jumped a whopping +217 points on the good news.
None of the so-called expert pundits wondered enough about the 8.3% “essentially unchanged” unemployment rate to find out why it went up. They were mesmerized by the 163K jobs figure. They accepted it at face value without question. They bought into the early report that the unemployment rate uptick is just a close “rounding error“.
Once again, shabby journalism prevailed and the pundits failed to do their job. If they’d just look beyond the façade of the jobs report they’d see so much more.
The complete July job number totals paint a very different, and far more sobering picture.
Not Reported in the News
After dropping steadily for nearly a year the unemployment rate bottomed out at 8.1% in April. It has reversed direction and is now creeping back up again.
How can that be if we created 163K new jobs last month and, according to BLS data, the seasonally-adjusted civilian labor force actually decreased by 150,000 in July? That does not compute.
The simple answer is this: There were NOT 163,000 new jobs created in July!
The United States actually LOST 195,000 seasonally-adjusted total jobs in July. In unadjusted numbers total employment isn’t so bad… we only LOST 76,000 REAL jobs last month.
You may be asking why you never heard that on the news. Did the BLS lie? Of course not. They just didn’t report the whole story. They never do.
It is the tradition of the BLS that they report only total non-farm, seasonally-adjusted employment in the monthly jobs report. That isn’t the total U.S. employment picture. It is a subset over 10 million jobs short of the true total.
The BLS reports non-farm for consistency. It is the only grouping broken down by job categories like construction, manufacturing, total private and government that the BLS discusses in each monthly report.
The Total Employment Jobs Picture
The A-1: Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Report is the report that presents the full employment picture for the United States. It is the report where you find the job losses for July and the drop in the civilian labor force.
Here are other sobering employment facts not heard on CNN or read in the New York Times…
- Total non-farm seasonally adjusted employment peaked at 138 million in January of 2008. July’s total was 133.2 million. We still have nearly 4.8 million fewer non-farm jobs than before the 2008 recession.
- Since January of 2008, 10.5 million eligible workers have been added to the U.S. workforce through population growth.
- The total U.S. seasonally-adjusted workforce (not just non-farm) peaked at 146.6 million in November of 2007. July’s reported total was 142.2 million jobs. By comparison, total employment is a little better off than total non-farm, but we still have 4.4 million fewer jobs than before the recession.
- When you factor in population growth the United States is about 10 million or so jobs short of where we should be for a healthy economy!
Friday, the DOW skyrocketed +217 points based on July’s Jobs Report. But when you dig below its façade you see an entirely different view of U.S. total employment.
The BLS reported 22 strait months of continuous non-farm job growth in the July Jobs Report (see the BLS Jobs Report chart above). According to David Axelrod on the Sunday talk shows, the Obama Campaign now claims 29 strait months of continuous job growth.
The full employment picture shows ZERO months of continuous job growth. It shows -195,000 seasonally-adjusted jobs LOST in July and -76,000 real jobs lost!
There are a net 76,000 real people out there wondering why they lost their real jobs last month while supposedly +240,000 others found work to create a net gain of +163,000 jobs for July.
Now you know the facts… the United States had a total net loss of jobs in July, be it seasonally-adjusted or not.
The unemployment rate is calculated based on total employment, not just non-farm employment.
That is why the unemployment rate climbed up to 8.3%.