The Real October Jobs Report

Due to Superstorm Sandy there was talk that this month’s jobs report might be delayed until after the November elections.

Conservative Republicans speculated that if the news were bad the report would be delayed until after the election, but if the news were good it would be released on time.

This month’s jobs report was released on time. The news outwardly looks very good for the President.

This report will be trumpeted by President Obama in the remaining days before the election as a triumph of his economic policies. He will likely claim 5.0 million or more jobs created. Romney will be put on the defensive by the mainstream media.

A closer look at the report, though, shows all is not as rosy as it seems.

Obama’s Conveniently Timed Good News

Note private-sector job growth shows 5.0 million jobs created in 32 months

The most important number for the President in this month’s jobs report will be +184,000.

That is the growth in total private-sector jobs last month. Even better yet, both September and August total private-sector job growth numbers were revised UPWARDS by the BLS this month… by +61,000 and +37,000, respectively. That boosts overall private-sector job growth even more.

Throughout the campaign, President Obama has always used total private-sector job growth as the yardstick for his economic accomplishments. He certainly won’t change now.

The official monthly report says there were +171,000 jobs created last month. It is lower than private-sector job growth because there were -13,000 more jobs lost in the public-sector. The best news in public-sector jobs is that local public employment remained steady and did not drop last month.

The President always uses private-sector job growth as his barometer of success in order to avoid admitting that there have been -664,000 public sector jobs lost since he became President.

By the Numbers

There is a lot of good news reported in this month’s jobs report.

From the household survey, total employment grew by +410,000; the labor participation rate jumped 0.2% to 63.8%; the employment population ratio increased 0.1% to 58.8%; and the U6 unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 14.6%.

The U6 rate of unemployment and underemployment due to economic conditions is far from good, but it is down from 16% a year ago. The other two bad ratios are also down from a year ago.

From the establishment survey, it is of interest to note that both total private-sector and total nonfarm employment figures were historically revise upward for both September and August. The bodes well for the President’s reelection.

The total nonfarm employment figures are especially impressive. September was revised upward +255,000 and August revised upward +50,000.

Everything is coming up roses for the Administration.

The Dark lining on the Silver Cloud

The first hint of trouble is what the BLS reported as an “essentially unchanged” unemployment rate of 7.9%. The unemployment rate rose a scant 0.1% from the 7.8% reported last month.

With all the great news, why didn’t the unemployment rate drop as would be expected??

Here are two ominous reasons:

  • -369,000 workers dropped out of the workforce altogether
  • +170,000 more workers are unemployed this month than last

Though they speak volumes as to the state of the economy, those numbers probably will not get much mention in the final days of this election cycle.

Conclusions

This month’s jobs report will be touted in the press as good news for President Obama.

Coupled with Presidential official announcements and campaign speeches it will probably increase confidence among undecided voters that President Obama’s economic policies might finally be starting to work.

The bad news will be swept under the rug again this month and that just may give the President the edge he needs to win on Tuesday.

But Wall Street is not fooled. After an initial jump in the Dow of +25, it has fallen off -41 points from its opening as this writing. Wall street’s number crunchers are absorbing the full jobs report.

This one jobs report will not change the minds of many undecided voters. But as razor close as this election is, it just may be enough to sway the outcome one way or the other.

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About azleader

Learning to see life more clearly... one image at a time!

Posted on Nov 2, 2012, in 2012 Elections, economics, Job Creation, Jobs, Jobs Reports, Life, news, Opinion, Politics, Thoughts. Bookmark the permalink. 6 Comments.

  1. As usual it will be up to Fox News and bloggers to get the truth out in the open. Good work, AZ!

    • Unfortunately, that will not be enough to have a positive impact on the outcome of election at this point. The mainstream media always holds all the cards.

  2. I do not believe Obama’s numbers. I personally know too many people who are:

    Unemployed, under-employed, living on welfare, social security, food stamps, food pantries, housing vouchers, attending college/university on federal loans, unemployment benefits, etc., etc ad infinitum.

    In Nov 2009, Climategate emails exposed 30 years of fraudulent government data that Al Gore and the UN’s IPCC used for AGW scaremongering – http://tinyurl.com/8v3csed

    Like Humpty-Dumpty’s fall, Climategate shattered the credibility of the government’s number crunchers.

    The 2012 Presidential election is an expensive distraction from the central issue facing Americans today. Do we want a.) or . . . b.) ?

    a.) A Return to Constitutional government:
    _ The Declaration of Independence: http://tinyurl.com/5yr32
    _ The US Constitution: http://tinyurl.com/yqm97q and
    _ The US Bill of Rights: http://tinyurl.com/dugh9

    or

    b.) Continue to form a one-world government under the
    _ UN’s “Core Agenda 21″: http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/agenda21/

    We know the answer. That’s why we will not be allowed to vote on this.

    – Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo
    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1673

  3. I’m suspicious of Obama, but can verify that the jobs numbers he quotes are not made up. He is incredibly good at cherry picking facts to exaggerate his jobs creation record to the point of total distortion, but they are not made up. They are backed by BLS statistics that come from the monthly household and establishment surveys.

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