IPCC Climate Data Defies All Models

The bombshell coming out of last week’s scandalous prerelease of next year’s IPCC climate change assessment report is that – in the real world – things are not as bad as we are told.

The IPCC says as much in its next assessment report due out late next year. A couple graphs from that report are compelling evidence… actual measurements don’t match IPCC model projections.

Global Temperatures vs. IPCC Projections

IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2nd Order Draft) Chapter 1 – Introduction, Page 1-39

Rising global temperatures are the IPCC’s bottom line. It’s the catalyst for everything else that happens. No temperature rise or slower than projected rise and all the predicted effects of global warming are either delayed or will not happen at all.

Are global temperatures rising? Not much anymore, according to the above IPCC graph!

The graph is from Chapter 1 of next year’s new IPCC 5th Assessment Report. It compares the actual measured global temperature with model predictions from four IPCC assessment reports:

  • FAR – IPCC 1st Assessment, 1990
  • SAR – IPCC 2nd Assessment, 1996
  • TAR – IPCC 3rd Assessment, 2001
  • AR4 – IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007

Note these very revealing features from the graph:

  1. Measured global temperatures remain at the bottom of all projections
  2. Global temperatures have leveled off since 1998

Thus, according to the IPCC, measured global temperatures are rising slower than projections and may have stopped rising all together.

If current trends continue then all the predicted climate effects will be delayed or not happen at all.

The rise in global CO2 emissions is well documented by the IPCC. Measurements fit right down the middle of the CO2 model projections. Temperature rise, however, does not… and that is what matters!

Methane Gas (CH4) Projections

IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2nd Order Draft) Chapter 1 – Introduction, Page 1-42

This next graph, also from chapter 1, illustrates how temperature dependent effects are not being observed.

What doesn’t fit at all well with projections is the measured increase of methane release into the atmosphere. This gas release, crucial to IPCC conclusions, is below model predictions.

The result is important for these reasons:

  • Measured methane release is below all four IPCC projections
  • Methane release is triggered by rising global temperatures
  • Each new projected rise is lower than the previous one
  • Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2
  • This graph is consistent with observed temperature slowdown

According to IPCC theory, methane is a crucial greenhouse gas needed for predicted global warming to occur. Without it, forecast global warming levels cannot be met very soon.

Here is how it works…
As global temperatures rise the permafrost in the Arctic begins to thaw. That starts the release of a huge trapped storehouse of frozen Arctic methane into the atmosphere. Because it is an intensely potent greenhouse gas, it amplifies the greenhouse effect, which causes even faster temperature rise that, in turn, thaws more permafrost faster and releases still more methane.

However, according to the IPCC, the projected methane release isn’t happening. Hence, the models incorrectly forecast faster global warming effects.


The two graphs are not the only things in the new IPCC report suggesting we are not as bad off as we are told.

The new report also appears to be scaling back a bit from the forecasts made in a special report on extreme weather events (SREX) released by the IPCC in March 2012.

All of this information is found in the very first chapter of the new report! That is not to say that increasing CO2 emissions will not eventually heat the Earth, but current data does say that it is further away than IPCC models project.

Yet the media still continues to push alarmist conclusions:
Leaked UN Report Predicts ‘Irreversible’ Climate Change
– uncredited, Environmental News Service, 12/17/2012

Sensationalism sells.

Perhaps journalists should try something radical… like read a report before writing about it.

About azleader

Learning to see life more clearly... one image at a time!

Posted on Dec 18, 2012, in climate change, economics, envronment, Global Warming, IPCC, Life, news, Opinion, Politics, science. Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.

  1. “Perhaps journalists should try something radical… like read a report before writing about it.”

    That would be novel.

  2. The global warming scare is about making money, big money, for very special interests; and they will not go away easily. It is good though that the blogosphere and contrarian pundits have kept the scientists honest and staying to the facts. Peer review by the public of scientific research is novel, and appears to be working. Yes man is affecting the climate, but not like the hucksters say. God is giving us more time to get our act together..

    • I actually really think that the climate alarmists believe what they are preaching. I think measurements are proving them wrong, but that is another story. 😉

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