September 2013 Sunspot Report

Wholly Molly! The Royal Society of Belgium promptly published September’s current official monthly sunspot number on October 1st.

It is really, REALLY low: 36.9!

NOAA, as usual, hasn’t reported yet.

We are supposed to be just after solar maximum activity. Yet it feels more like nearing the end of the cycle. Sunspot counts dropped dramatically from last month’s already pathetically low 66, which was up from the month before.

What is happening on the sun?

September’s Muddled Message

It is noteworthy that September’s southern hemisphere sunspot count (19.6) is barely above the northern count (17.3).

That would not amount to a hill of beans if not for the fact that northern hemisphere sunspot activity peaked way back in November 2011 at 96.7!

Solar physicists are still at odds over whether or not the southern hemisphere sunspot activity has peaked or not. 19.6 is a super low number.

Will southern sunspots peak or not? Or, will sunspots just peter off into never-never land?

That is the $580 trillion earth climate change question!

Sunspots and the IPCC

The IPCC came out with the meat and potatoes of its AR5 report a few days ago.

In it, once again, the impact of the sun – a variable star – on earth’s climate was minimized.

History tells us that the sun is the primary influence on earth’s climate. The end of the last major last ice age 11,000 years ago corresponded with outrageously high solar sunspot activity. The “little ice age” 400 years ago corresponds with the last period of super minimal sunspot activity known as the Maunder Minimum.

The first official prediction for the peak of the next solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, is only 7!! That puts it in line with solar activity during the Maunder Minimum.

Conclusions

What is happening on the sun? What will happen?

Even the most lustrous minds in solar physics cannot answer that question.

Things could go anywhere. Brilliant solar physicist Leif Svalgaard, who predicted what we are seeing in Cycle 24 right now, doesn’t even know.

All that is known for sure is that something dramatic is happening on the sun this minute. It will affect life on earth for decades to come!

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About azleader

Learning to see life more clearly... one image at a time!

Posted on Oct 2, 2013, in Business, Climate, economics, Energy, environment, nature, news, Opinion, Politics, science, space, sunspot report. Bookmark the permalink. 6 Comments.

  1. Seems like what all sensible people are really afraid of; an Ice Age.
    Warming would be manageable, even good, if true; but if it was an ice age; well you can’t survive one of those can you.

    • Our solar future is uncertain. At this point, though, the sun seems to be pointing toward global cooling.

      The great solar physicist, Leif Svalgaard, is quick to point out that changes in solar energy output, a couple watts/square meter, is to low to have much effect on earth’s climate.

      Others point out that solar forcing effects, like solar wind and cosmic radiation, may have a much higher influence on earth’s climate than just radiant energy changes alone.

      That remains to be seen. What is certain is that we will probably get the answer in the next 10-15 years.

  2. Leif Svalgaard must know changes in TSI (total solar energy irradiation) do not cause climate change.

    Sunspots are caused by variations in invisible magnetic fields that protrude up from the solar core through the solar photosphere. Those and changes in the wavelength of light coming from the Sun are linked with climate change.

    • Svalgaard does know that normal TSI variation is insufficient to drive climate change.

      He makes that abundantly clear to everyone who comments on the sun driving climate change… using his own no nonsense, take no prisoners way. 😉

      Nobody really knows if a long-term decline in sunspot activity like we appear to be entering now will result in a long term decline in TSI… but we will find out!

  1. Pingback: September 2013 Sunspot Report | Inform The Pundits! | Solar Flare 2012

  2. Pingback: What Is Happening On The Sun? | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

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