Extreme Weather: The Hurricane Myth

Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney – grim-faced – announced that FEMA is recalling furloughed workers to deal with a national emergency.

Looming tropical storm Karen is bearing down on New Orleans and Louisiana’s Gulf Coast. News reports say it could increase to hurricane strength late today.

CNN has been running announcements that their hurricane team is on the ready to document the devastation Karen will wreak on hapless Louisiana!

Human-caused hurricanes is perhaps the greatest climate science myth of them all!

The myth says that human-caused global warming is creating more hurricanes and that they are more intense.

Its long past due that this IPCC-driven misconception gets corrected. Even President Obama often repeats it in speeches pushing CO2 reductions.

Nothing but the facts, Ma’am
– Sgt. Joe Friday, Dragnet, 1951-1959

Data Source: NOAA

Fact:

  • Hurricanes have steadily declined in numbers since 1850
  • Intense hurricanes are unchanged since 1880
  • Now is the longest drought of intense hurricanes in U.S. history
  • The last intense hurricane to hit the U.S. was Katrina in 2005


TS Karen – 10/4/2013

Myth:

  • Hurricanes are increasing in numbers and strength
  • Some hurricanes result from human-caused global warming
  • 2013 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season
  • TS Karen is a hurricane

Hurricane Hysteria

Hurricane Assessment (AR5 WGI)

It is “likely” that there were more hurricanes and “likely” the increase was human-caused. That is according to the IPCC’s AR4 report back in 2007.

The new AR5 report, just released, sends out mixed messages. A table in the “Summary for Policymakers” says there is “low confidence” that hurricanes increased in the 20th century and “low confidence” they were human-caused.  If at all, new effects won’t show for 40+ years.

That is a 180 degree reversal of position from its 2007 report. None of that is mentioned in the text of AR5.

Also, in Chapter 1 of the newly released “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis“, the IPCC republishes the same extreme weather table in chapter 1 that it included in its 2007 report.

The new AR5 “Summary for Policymakers” and “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis” have diametrically opposite assessments regarding hurricanes. What is the IPCC’s position? Nobody knows. Nothing definitive about it is said in the text of the entire 1,000+ pages in the two reports.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Late last year, NOAA forecast an “above average” 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. That forecast has not changed.

NOAA said conditions in the Caribbean and off Africa were ripe for creating an abundance of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Based on NOAA, AccuWeather.com forecast 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and 16 tropical storms. An intense hurricane is Cat 3 or larger.

They said there would be 3 U.S. landfalls.

So far, there have been 2 hurricanes, 0 intense hurricanes and 10 tropical storms. TS Karen, according to the latest NOAA forecast, will not make hurricane strength. It will be the first storm to make U.S. landfall this year.

The Atlantic hurricane season is waning. There is only one lonely Atlantic tropical storm in the east Atlantic right now and that one is moving away from the U.S.

NOAA blew it big time. They were so far off that they need to review how forecasts are made.

It might change, but 2013 has produced the fewest number of hurricanes ever. That according to U.S. National Hurricane Center records going back to 1998.

Conclusions

The latest AR5 “Summary for Policymakers” appears to have reversed a decades long IPCC belief that human activity has increasing the numbers of hurricanes and made them more intense.

But that position remains muddled because another table in another report still agrees with the 2007 position. The IPCC makes no mention of the differences anywhere.

Science, on the other hand, has spoken definitively. Hurricane numbers have been declining since the 1850s and their intensity is unchanged since 1880. If human activity is having any effect at all, it is to produce fewer hurricanes, not more and more intense ones like the IPCC has said for decades.

The hurricane myth is perpetuated by the IPCC and repeated by the President of the United States and many, many others.

The time has come. The hurricane myth has gotta go!

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About azleader

Learning to see life more clearly... one image at a time!

Posted on Oct 4, 2013, in Business, Climate, economics, environment, Government, IPCC, nature, news, Politics, science. Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.

  1. Pundit:

    AGW is the straw that broke the camel’s back. Here’s the rest of the story:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/09/28/two-households-full-time-job-bi-coastal-and-more/#comment-55468

    • AGW is a weak, poorly supported theory. However, the IPCC is committed to it hook line and sinker and has been since the day it was created back in 1988.

      Time and science are finally catching up with the IPCC.

      • The UN’s IPCC – propaganda machine of the New World Order – will collapse if we all realize that “We hang together or die separately !”

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