Sunspots 2014: Solar Cooling To Arrive?

Dangerous AR1944!

It’s a shiny new year… a time for bold predictions.

Here are four 2014 prognostications you won’t read anywhere else:

  • All forecasts of future sunspot activity made in 2014 will be scary low!
  • A revised 400-year long sunspot record will erase the “Modern Maximum”
  • By the end of 2014 the sun will be on its way to solar minimum
  • Global cooling on Earth will finally start to show!!

Some predictions sharply contradict current solar activity.

December 2013 was the second most active sunspot month so far this solar cycle. Only November of 2011, over two years ago, produced more sunspots than last month.

Even as these words are written a menacing X1.2 Class CME is barreling toward Earth. It was ejected from giant sunspot group AR1944. NASA’s sunspot count yesterday hit 245, the highest seen in years!

Prediction is a tricky business… but… you have to climb out on a limb to pick the best fruit…
No guts, no glory… No pain, no gain…
Ya gotta break a few global warming alarmists to make a climate change omelette!!

So… here goes…

What Makes You So Right, Smarty Pants??

Elementary, My Dear Watson…

The graph above shows we should be trending down toward solar minimum right now. Sunspots are not yet cooperating. But looks can be deceiving. Not shown is that the sun’s magnetic field has reversed polarity at both poles, a sure sign we are past the mid-point of Cycle 24.

There are all kinds of collected data backed up by theory indicating that we are on the down side of solar activity in general and that Cycle 25 is gonna be a whole lot smaller than this puny one!

Talk is cheap unless it is backed up with data. So, here are some data…

Total sunspots have been decreasing over the last three sunspot cycles

The sun’s total magnetic field has been declining since 1975

The sun is dramatically changing:

  1. Total sunspots are decreasing
  2. The sun’s overall magnetic field is decreasing
  3. Individual sunspot umbral fields are weakening. See left==>

Together, these and other changes add up to less magnetism at the sun’s surface. Less magnetism means a less active sun. Less umbral magnetism means sunspots are fading away. Fewer sunspots means less radiant energy leaves the sun. Less radiant energy means Earth cools.

Why is this happening?

It is a new concept, but some scientists have linked increases and decreases in solar sunspot activity to cyclic planetary perturbations that affect the solar dynamo.

Based on past sunspot activity R. J. Salvador created a mathematical model that reconstructs the solar sunspot cycle over the last 1,000 years and forecast what is to come the rest of this century. His paper, “A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr” was published in the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics on 11/15/2013.

R.J. Salvador forecasts a “quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr” based on planetary cycles

In 2013, all solar physicists talked about was a growing belief that Cycle 25 will be even weaker than this one. The first prediction was for only 7 spots during solar max next cycle.

In 2014, more precursors like those recorded on the downside of Cycle 23 will start showing up in Cycle 24. They will be used to forecast Cycle 25 activity. More scientists will make predictions based on new data as it becomes available this year and next. Based on what has come out so far, this author predicts they will all be very low.

2014: Year of the Revised Sunspot Record!

Solar sunspot counts make up the longest continuously recorded set of data in all of science. It was started by Galileo back in 1609 just after the invention of the telescope. It is a fundamental scientific dataset. Studies in many disciplines of science depend on its absolute accuracy.

It’s been known for decades that the sunspot record is flawed. Over the centuries changes in the way sunspots are counted by different astronomers have introduced inconsistencies into the record that need to be corrected.

A group of solar physicists called the SSN Workshop was formed in 2011 to resolve the discrepancies. They have held 3 conferences since then.

One important discrepancy is a counting change made in the 1940s. a new counting method added about 20% more spots to today’s counts than before the change was made. That error artificially created the “Modern Maximum“. There is no modern maximum. It is just a counting artifact!

The SSN workshop will hold its 4th and final conference in May 2014 to decide what changes to make to the record. They will publish a paper with their final findings.

It isn’t formalized yet, but this writer feels that by the end of 2014 the “Modern Maximum” will be declared null and void. Other changes will be made to the sunspot record going all the way back to the beginning.

The Big Chill

Total Solar Irradiation (TSI) has increased at the same time as Earth’s temperature

Everyone knows by now that global warming stopped about 17 years ago, contrary to IPCC predictions calling for steady increases. Nobody knows why. Nearly 25% of the increase in CO2 into Earth’s atmosphere has happened since then.

Everyone also knows that the amount of temperature rise observed cannot be explained by changes in solar radiant energy (TSI) alone.

The IPCC credits low sunspot activity as one of the reasons for a “hiatus” from atmospheric global warming so far this century in its newest AR5 report

This author believes that while researching explanations for the “hiatus” that new climate forcings involving TSI, solar wind intensity and cloud formation will be discovered. If found, that would explain the extraordinary correspondence between the above graph and earth’s observed global temperature profile.

The effects of decreasing solar activity starting in 2014 will be enough to start seeing global temperatures barely begin to edge downward.

Conclusions

As of this minute, gigantic sunspot group AR1944 is pointed directly at Earth. It has already launched one dangerous Class X1.2 CME towards Earth yesterday. According to NASA’s spaceweather.com, it is “crackling with solar flares” and its not through. NASA says it “has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-class solar flares”.

The sun could hardly be more violent than it is right now. The 245 spots counted yesterday might be a record for this cycle.

That being said, data suggests that 2014 solar activity may have come in like a lion, but it’ll go out like a lamb. Inexorable movement towards solar minimum will become apparent.

More precursors indicating the strength of the next solar cycle will start appearing and all of them will suggest we are on the doorstep of the the weakest activity in 200-400 years.

In 2014 we will see the sun start to slip into a long hibernation and the seeds of global cooling will start to show up.

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About azleader

Learning to see life more clearly... one image at a time!

Posted on Jan 8, 2014, in astronomy, climate change, Global Climate Change, Little Ice Age, Politics, science, solar cycle, solar physics, Sun, sunspot report, sunspots and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. 18 Comments.

  1. Coincidence [1] exposed reality, and this was added as the last two pages of Chapter 2, A Journey to the Core of the Sun – Acceptance of Reality [2].

    1. Einstein’s and Aston’s discoveries in 1905-1922 of “powers beyond the dreams of scientific fiction” [3] were selfishly used to kill, or threaten to kill, the inhabitants or leaders of other nations in 1945-1968.

    2. Frightened world leaders apparently secretly agreed amongst themselves in 1971-1972 to:

    _ a.) Save themselves,
    _ b.) Sacrifice the integrity of science and
    _ c.) Constitutional limits on governments, and
    _ d.) Enslave their citizens by giving them street drugs, anti-depressants, psychotropic drugs, legalized marijuana, alcohol, reality TV, gladiator sports, video games, pornography, gambling casinos, etc., etc, ad infinitum !

    With kind regards,
    – Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

    References:

    1. A Journey to the Core of the Sun – Coincidence

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Chapter_1.pdf

    2. A Journey to the Core of the Sun – Acceptance of Reality

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Chapter_2.pdf

    3. See: Last paragraph of Aston’s 1922 Nobel Lecture

    http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1922/aston-lecture.pdf

    • If this relates to this article, I fail to see the connection.

      • Posting of information from my autobiography relates to your article because:

        1. The autobiography gives a summary of experimental measurements since 1956 that show the interior of the Sun is mostly iron and it’s core is a pulsar.

        2. Sunspots are magnetic fields from the superconducting iron mantle or the pulsar core of the Sun. The topic of solar flares and eruptions was discussed specifically in a 2002 paper:

        “Super-fluidity in the solar interior: Implications for solar eruptions and climate”,
        Journal of Fusion Energy
        21, 193-198 (2002). http://www.springerlink.com/content/r2352635vv166363/ http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0501441 http://www.omatumr.com/abstracts2003/jfe-superfluidity.pdf

      • R. J. Salvador, Penn and Livingston, Leif Svalgaard and many others have translated their measurements and theories into reconstructions of past solar activity and predictions of future solar sunspot behavior.

        Can your theory do that? And, if so, what do you forecast solar sunspot activity will be for Cycle 25 and for the rest of this century?

      • The short answer is no.

        I cannot predict the behavior of a pulsar and I seriously doubt if anyone else can.

        But the experimental evidence for the Sun’s pulsar core and iron-rich mantle are clear and unequivocal. See Figs 1-3 of Chapter 2.

        Those who claim the ability to predict future sunspot activity have avoided addressing the experimental data from 1957-2013 summarized in Figs 1-3.

        I.e., I do not believe their forecasts any more than AGW forecasts.

        Oliver

      • You should believe Leif Svalgaard’s predictions.

        Back in 2004 during Cycle 23 Svalgaard predicted what we are seeing today in Cycle 24 right now. He isn’t right about the timing, but is right about the low number of sunspots observed. At the time it was published Svalgaard was the only solar physicist predicting a weak cycle. Everyone else said it would be up around 140+ or so. The science behind his prediction is very solid.

        His remarkable paper is here:
        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL021664/abstract

  2. Very good article with one glaring exception: you apparently missed the SSN of 282 on Nov 17, 2013, and all it’s implications. Keep up the good work.

  3. “You should believe Leif Svalgaard’s predictions” ?

    I will seriously consider that possibilility after Leif Svalgaard seriously considers and responds to about six decades of experimental data that falsify the Standard Solar Model of Hydrogen-filled stars.

    See Figures 1-3 of Chapter 2 of my autobiography.

  4. Global cooling? It must be of George Bush’s doing.

    • Perhaps not cool 😉 … since this article was written the sun has continued to confound the experts. Just a few days ago it reached three new milestones:
      1-A new Cycle 24 monthly sunspot record of 102.8 was set in Feb. 2014
      2-A new Cycle 24 sunspot max of 68.9 was set and will probably set another next month
      3- A new Cycle 24 solar flux record of 170.3 sfu was set

      The sun was VERY active last month!

      However, the fundamentals remain the same and it still looks like solar activity is headed for long-term slumber.

      Time will tell whether or not the current spurt in solar activity is a trend or just a flash in the pan.

  5. “the sun has continued to confound the experts” – like the US National Academy of Sciences and the UK Royal Society – who continue to

    1 . Ignore nine pages of precise experimental data (Pages 19-27 of my biography in the first comment posted here) that show the Sun is a pulsar;

    2. Issue more predictions of CO2-induced global warming; and

    3. Prepare to blame economic collapse of the West on Russia!

    http://coto2.wordpress.com/2014/03/02/ukraine-navy-is-no-more-joins-crimea/#comment-43993

    • The sun confounds scientists because the physics behind sunspots isn’t understood well enough to accurately forecast solar cycle behavior.

      For example, nobody predicted the first secondary peak for Cycle 24 would be bigger than the first. Scientists don’t even attempt to predict what sunspot behavior will be from one month to the next.

  6. Really people, do you think anyone really has the intelligence to fully understand nature? Scientists used to believe the atom was the smallest thing in nature until they learned to split it, and that opened another dimension of discovery and reality! Science has barely scratched the surface of what is really going on in our or any other universe. If that is not enough, just look at the scans (photos) taken by Hubble showing uncountable other universes in the distant night sky, it boggles the imagination!!!!!

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