Climate cover-up at the National Academy of Sciences?

Which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Does rising CO2 levels cause global warming, or does global warming cause rising CO2?

The temperature vs. CO2 data record over the last 800,000 years shows temperature changes came before CO2 changes, according to data published by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS).

However, alarming evidence that rising CO2 is causing global warming is found in the Arctic Ocean.

In the last 35 years approximately 67 percent of Arctic sea ice has melted while, at the same time, CO2 levels have skyrocketed. Arctic sea ice will disappear in 25-30 years at its current pace.

The level of CO2 in earth’s atmosphere is far higher today than it’s been in nearly a million years, perhaps longer. It’s elevated because of human activity. Those are undisputed facts.

It’s therefore logically assumed by most scientists that because CO2 is a greenhouse gas that human-caused CO2 levels today are causing rising temperatures.

Is this true? Over recent geologic time, rising temperatures have driven rising CO2 levels, not the other way around!

Very disturbing is that the NAS may be trying to hide its own finding!

800,000 years of global temperature and CO2 data

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

The NAS combined two significant long-term datasets. One dataset, from Luthi, et al, shows CO2 levels. The other, from J. Jouzel et al, shows earth’s temperature profile over the same time span.

Both sets of data come from peer-reviewed papers published in two of the most respected science journals in the world – Nature and Science. Both datasets originate from analysis of Antarctic ice core samples.

The above graph produced by the NAS combines the two datasets. It shows that temperature and CO2 levels are well correlated with each other.

The graph also shows that today’s CO2 level of 400 ppm is well above any previous level seen in nearly a million years.

It’s not an exaggeration to describe the current level of CO2 as “unprecedented”. It is.

An NAS Cover-up?

For reasons unknown, the National Academy reproduces the graphed data in two different places on its website. In one place it is reproduced as Figure 3. In the other it’s reproduced as Figure 14.

Both plot exactly the same data from the same two data sources. The salient differences between Fig. 3 and Fig. 14 are captured in their nearly identical descriptions:

Figure 3. … The cyclical pattern of temperature variations constitutes the ice age/ interglacial cycles. During these cycles, changes in CO2 concentrations (in blue) track closely with changes in temperature (in red). As the record shows, the recent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is unprecedented


Figure 14. … The cyclical pattern of temperature variations constitutes the ice age/interglacial cycles. During these cycles, changes in carbon dioxide concentrations (in red) track closely with changes in temperature (in blue), with CO2 lagging behind temperature changes. …

Left out of the Figure 3 description is that carbon dioxide changes over the last 800,000 years happened close to, but after the temperature changes. That means that the temperature changes could not have been caused by changes in CO2!! That’s a big deal.

This crucial finding related to the current climate change discussion is edited out of Fig. 3’s description by the NAS. Why?


Earth’s global temperature has leveled off in the last 15 years while CO2 levels rise ever faster. Perhaps the simplistic relationship of CO2 to temperature isn’t entirely correct for earth’s dynamic climate system.

The National Academy of Sciences published two different interpretations of the same results in two different places on its website.

In one place it says that temperature increases preceded CO2 changes over geologic time. In the other, NAS removes that detail.

The crucial finding, though, is that over the last 800,000 years temperature changes came before CO2 changes. Therefore, over geologic time, CO2 could not have caused rising temperatures.

Why then did the NAS exclude that exceptionally meaningful fact from one description but not the other?

The answer will become crystal clear should the NAS either delete Figure 14 or change its description by removing the words, “with CO2 lagging behind temperature change“.


About azleader

Learning to see life more clearly... one image at a time!

Posted on Apr 15, 2014, in Climate, climate change, culture, environment, Global Warming, Life, nature, news, Opinion, Politics, science, Thoughts. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

  1. Thank you for your efforts to restore integrity to government science. Regretfully, the US National Academy of Sciences has abused their position of trust:

    I finally grasped why my research mentor risked everything to bring secret diagrams and drawings of Japan’s wartime plans for an atomic bomb with him when he came to the United States [1]:

    1. BBC on line article, “Atomic plans returned to Japan,” Saturday, 3 August 2002:

    Japan’s atomic bomb project was hidden from the public so ordinary citizens would not suspect why :

    a.) The United Nations was formed on 24 Oct 1945, and
    b.) Nuclear and solar physics were compromised in 1946

    Click to access Chapter_2.pdf

    Click to access WHY.pdf

    With deep regrets,
    – Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

  2. First, there is no real evidence of a coverup, just a meaningful omission. Should it get added back into Fig. 3 then there is no coverup.

    The omission of an important finding from one figure description leaves open the erroneous interpretation that temperature changes over the last 800,000 years were cause by rises in CO2. They were not. Some folks argue that CO2 played a roll after the fact. I don’t know if that is true or not.

    Given the controversy over global warming and the assumption that CO2 increases are causing temperature rises, I felt compelled to clarify that isn’t necessarily true. Recent geologic history says exactly the opposite is true. That is important to keep in mind in the current discussion.

Comments and questions are welcomed!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: