El Niño 2014: Climate Alarmists Disappointed

Earth.Nullschool.Net: Super typhoon Neoguri crosses paths with El Niño 2014

Austin, July 11, 2014 — Climate alarmists hoping for a super-El Niño this fall and winter to jolt global warming back into high gear again are probably going to be disappointed.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its July monthly El Niño report on July 10. The consensus probability for El Niño conditions in the Northern Hemisphere remained unchanged, but indicators of the strength of the El Niño have weakened considerably since last month. Earth, though, still remains under an “El Niño Watch”.

Forecasters now predict that El Niño 2014 “will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter”. The report says, “chances of a strong El Niño are not favored” in the models.

Fears of a catastrophic super-El Niño are gone.

El Niño strength indicators deteriorate

NOAA El Niño (ENSO) Report/June-July 2014: Upper ocean heat decreased a lot last month

A number of El Niño indicators have declined in the last month.

According to this month’s report, “weakening (is) evident near the International Date Line”. The Nino-4 index decreased to +0.3°C. Subsurface heat content between 180º-100ºW has decreased substantially since late March 2014 and is now back near average (Fig. 3).

The all-important Niño-3.4 index, which defines an El Niño event, remains at +0.4°C. That’s just below El Niño strength.

All these things affect El Niño climate modeling and forecasts.

Climate Model Changes

NOAA El Niño (ENSO) Report/June-July 2014: Model forecasts now show weaker El Niño for 2014

The latest empirical data input into the models this month show a downward curl that was only hinted at last month. All this indicates a much weaker event than feared in April.

Super typhoon Neoguri effects

Earth.Nullschool.Net: Super typhoon Neoguri drew trade winds eastward, weakening El Niño 2014

It’s pure speculation and probably will have no effect, but super typhoon Neoguri may have sapped some of the energy from El Niño over the 10 days when it swept across the western equatorial Pacific where El Niños spawn.

Neoguri drew heat from the ocean and intensified east blowing trade winds. Both effects are temporary, but could further weaken El Niño 2014.

As of today, there is no hint of trade wind reversal showing up yet. The reversal of trade winds is one of the main drivers of El Niño that wreaks climate altering havoc. Tropical storm Nine is now forming in the western Pacific and further drawing trade winds eastward in a normal, counter-El Niño direction.

Conclusions

July’s El Niño update report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is very good news. April fears of a devastating super-El Niño have evaporated. The forecast now calls for a weak to normal event. According to modeling, the Niño-3.4 index won’t get much higher than it already is.

However, this is bad news for hard core climate alarmists. The theory of anthropomorphic (human-caused) global warming is falling on hard times. It has been over 15 years since there has been any statistically significant global warming despite that CO2 emissions have accelerated during that time and now top 400 ppm.

Climate alarmists are becoming increasingly anxious for global warming to resume. They are looking for something, anything, to kick start warming again and have been counting on a strong El Niño this year to do the trick.

It’s not looking like El Niño 2014 will help out alarmist thinkers much this year after all.

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Posted on Jul 11, 2014, in Climate, climate change, economics, environment, Global Warming, nature, news, Politics, science. Bookmark the permalink. 7 Comments.

  1. The climate warmer alarmest can seem to catch a break, lately. I read recent that the average temperature in the US has actually fallen 0.4C in the last ten years. But hey, the climate is still changing… thank God!

    • U.S. temperatures haven’t fallen that much, that is a lot, but are on a very slight downward trajectory, but it isn’t statistically meaningful.

  2. No matter what the cause, climate change is happening. Maybe you could stick to politics as there is nothing you can say that will change the weather.

    • Three comments:
      1-Climate has been changing naturally forever and will continue doing so
      2-This article is all about politics
      3-My college degree is in physics, not political “science”

      Climate change politics has far less to do with science than it does with pure monied politics. For example, Tom Steyer – a billionaire green technology investor – is spending $100 million to elect Democrats who will insure he gets fat-cat government green energy subsidies. That is politics.

      The problem with climate change politics is it isn’t science based. This article uses real science to combat the latest politics-based climate science myth. The myth being spread by the AGW alarmist community is that there is going to be a super El Niño that, after more than 15 years absent, will restart global warming again and all the alarmist predictions will come true.

      As is most often true of AGW alarmist predictions… it ain’t gonna happen!

      • Indeed!. The short summary about CAGW is the benefits of CO2 are known, the projected harms fail to happen.

        The C, the G and the W (for 13 to 17 years depending on the global data set chosen) are all absent in the observations.

        This leaves us with human caused something; but hey governments can get more money and statist power, and some folk can become filthy rich. When I was a kid I heard a phrase, “Politicians would tax the very air you breathe if the could.” now they can.

  1. Pingback: These items caught my eye – 12 July 2014 | grumpydenier

  2. Pingback: These items caught my eye – 12 July 2014 | grumpydenier

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