IPCC SPM: Bye to Extreme Weather

SPM means “Summary for Policymakers“. That’s the name of the first new report in a long series of IPCC reports making up its current climate assessment, collectively known as AR5.

According to the new SPM, you can cross intense hurricanes and droughts off the extreme weather worry list. That should be making global front page headlines, but isn’t. Why?

The reason… from reading the report you’d hardly know there was any change at all. Nary a single word is uttered about backing off on anything.

Here is what the SPM says about extreme weather…

Extreme Weather

Direct comparison of assessment findings between reports is difficult
– SPM AR5, Describing Extreme Weather, Page #23

I know, this sounds radical to the IPCC, but lets give it a shot anyway.

Lets compare AR5 to 2007’s AR4 extreme weather forecasts in the two tables below.

Extreme Weather Forecast Table from the AR4 Asessment (2007)

Extreme Weather Forecast Table from the AR5 Assessment (2013)

The IPCC was nice enough to include the AR4 assessments within the above AR5 table.

So, to assist in comparing AR5 and AR4 I’ve added green, blue and yellow highlighted boxes. Green highlights the AR5 changes. Blue highlights what was said in 2007 in the AR4. Yellow identifies the 4 most affected areas changed.

By far, the two most changed extremes from AR4 to AR5 are “intense tropical cyclone” activity (hurricanes) and droughts. There are lesser changes in other places.

Intense Hurricanes

AR4 said increases in intense hurricanes were “likely” in the late 20th century. The new AR5 report lowers that to “low confidence”.

What was once thought likely is now thought unlikely. More important, the IPCC is saying, never mind, we didn’t have more intense hurricanes after all.

Facts agree; intense hurricanes have been decreasing since 1850! So far, 2013 is one of the weakest, if not the weakest Atlantic hurricane season on record. The last hurricane to make U.S. landfall bigger than Cat 1 was Katrina back in 2005.

AR4 said it was “More likely than not” that intense 20th century hurricanes were human caused. AR5 lowered that belief to “low confidence”.

After years saying the opposite, with AR5 the IPCC is now saying it’s unlikely that humans have caused intense hurricane activity!!!

According to AR5, for the 1st half of this century there is “low confidence” there will be increases in intense hurricanes. That might increase to “more likely than not” by the 2nd half of this century.

Bottom line… the IPCC says human-caused global warming is not creating more intense hurricanes after all and the ones we’ve had aren’t human-caused.

Somebody please tell Al Gore.

Intense/Long Droughts

AR4 said it was “likely” that intense or long droughts increased in the 20th century and that they were “likely” human caused.

AR5, on the other hand, now says there is “low confidence” that either happened.

What was once thought likely is now thought unlikely. More important, the IPCC is saying we haven’t had more droughts after all.

Facts agree; Nature reports the global drought situation is unchanged since the 1950s.

The IPCC says with “medium confidence” that more intense droughts will increase late this century.

Bottom line… The IPCC says human-caused global warming has not created more intense droughts after all and the ones we’ve had weren’t human-caused.

Other AR5 Severe Weather Adjustments

The IPCC says they now only have “medium confidence” that heat waves increased in the 20th century. That is down from “likely” back in 2007.

The IPCC says it is “likely” the heat waves that we did have were human-caused. That is up from AR4 where they said it was “more likely than not“.

Since droughts are down and heat waves up, that can only mean one thing… we’ve had wet heat waves! Someone please tell U.S. mid-west corn farmers that 2012 was a fluke!

Increases in the number of hot/cold days are “very likely” human caused instead of only “likely” before in AR4.

The IPCC makes a huge fuss over seal level rise in the SPM. In AR5 they say it is “likely” that all sea level rise was human-caused. That is up from AR4 where they said it was “more likely than not“.

The IPCC also says it is “likely” sea levels will rise in the 1st half of the 20th century and “very likely” that sea levels will rise in the 2nd half of the century. In AR4 they just said “likely“.

Conclusions

The AR5 reports are vitally important to the entire world. Why? Because, based on them, the UN recommends warming mitigation efforts that could cost upwards of 80% of global GDP!

The SPM was released on Friday. The full Working Group I report called “The Physical Science Basis” is expected to be released tomorrow. That one describes the science behind climate change. Other assessments will follow over the next year.

The IPCC made dramatic reversals in both past and present intense hurricane and intense/long droughts, yet made no mention of it in the text of the SPM.

The IPCC made lesser adjustments to other extreme conditions but advertised them like a terrorist attack in the SPM.

Given that, and the shoddy embarrassment of the first released SPM, it is difficult to take the IPCC seriously anymore.